Everything But The Weed

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Dr. Menahem Anderman, the president of Advanced Automotive Batteries, projects that the automotive <strong>lithium-ion market could reach $1.6 billion in 2015, up almost five-fold from $337M in 2012, propelled largely by a dramatic expanding upon in the use of Li-ion batteries in strong (or full) hybrid applications. Anderman bases his forecasts on his work with automotive OEMs, battery manufacturers and materials suppliers.

According to the forecast, strong hybrid applications will account for 78% of the lithium market in 2015, reaching $1.26 billion—more than six times the 2012 figures of $196 million, which represents 58% of that proposed market. Dr. Anderman released his projections publicly during a presentation of his analysis of the assess proposition for automotive Li-ion batteries at the Advanced Automotive Battery & Ultracapacitor Conference (AABC) 2008, running in Tampa, Florida this week and has spiked a growth in lithium exploration.

The opportunity is in the high-volume strong hybrids expose the lithium sector We could have more than $1 billion by 2015, assuming no major safe? incident with Lithium-ion.

—Dr. Menahem Anderman

Lithium-ion batteries could also see strong growth in the upper end of the micro-hybrid market (stop-start with regenerative braking) and in mild hybrid applications, Anderman said. For micro hybrid applications, Li-ion faces competition from VRLA (lead-acid) batteries and VRLA-Ultracapacitor systems. Toyota, he noted has the most data on the life and performance data on a Li-ion pack for such an application, via the Toyota Intelligent Idling Stop System in the Vitz.

For mild hybrids such as Honda hybrids, the size and weight of Li-ion is attractive compared to NiMH, and the cost per pack can be similar. The main issue here is that immunity rise must be manageable, Anderman said, and life and safety achieved in a single design.

Suppressing impedance rise over life is necessary to enable OEMs to take advantage of the higher power and energy compactness of NiMH by spec’ing lower Wh batteries into applications. Cost parity with NiMH per kWh can be achieved at similar yield volumes if manufacturing yields are proven. Cost parity with NiMH per kW will be reached earlier, he said, so that for applications which are kW driven, Li-ion will become cost-competitive sooner.

Considering the rate of progress of Li-ion technology, lower cost per kWh enabled by lower cost material is likely in the longer term, provided the materials meet the life requirements. Future nickel cost—the key material cost driver for NiMH—is also an unknown factor.

Anderman is not bullish on the prospects of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), at least based on the economics of it. Retrofitting an existent plan is not really attractive, based on annual fuel cost saving and the loss of cargo space, and designing new platforms for plug-ins is “fermented to justify considering the questionable value proposition and the financial risks involved.” His assessment is that plug-ins with a 10-mile electric range using a blended strategy make the most financial sense, even with gasoline prices reaching $8/gallon.